The Macro System

Persistent Core Inflation, Elevated Rates Volatility, and an Incomplete Easing Narrative

Current data suggest a restrictive but not yet systemic macro-financial backdrop

Apr 6 • Ricardo Vargas

The issue is not unanchored inflation, it is unstable rates in a still-resilient nominal economy

The latest macro crosscurrents continue to point to a market that is misreading the source of pressure.

Apr 1 • Ricardo Vargas

5

March 2026

Early Deterioration, but No Confirmed Regime Break

Current indicators point to tighter conditions and reduced risk tolerance, but not yet to systemic stress

Mar 31 • Ricardo Vargas

4

Weekly Macro Note: The Front-End Has Eased. The System Still Isn’t Easy

Short-end stress has faded, but long-end real rates, a firm dollar, and elevated capital costs still argue against an easy-money regime.

Mar 24 • Ricardo Vargas

2

Weekly Investment Memo

Week Ending March 19, 2026

Mar 20 • Ricardo Vargas

3

The Liquidity Buffer Is Gone

The next phase of the Fed’s tightening cycle may be more fragile than markets expect

Mar 15 • Ricardo Vargas

1

2

February 2026

A disciplined approach to capital allocation in a macroeconomically uncertain environment

February 22, 2026

Published on The Macro System • Feb 22

A disciplined approach to capital allocation in a macroeconomically uncertain environment

February 22, 2026

Feb 22 • Ricardo Vargas

1

January 2026

The market doesn’t punish mistakes. It punishes lack of control

How a −27% drawdown changed my identity as an investor and forced me to think like a fiduciary

Jan 1 • Ricardo Vargas

1

November 2025

Three Charts. One Clear Lesson: What Truly Matters in Risk and Return Analysis

Normalized return, rolling volatility, and historical drawdown: how to interpret them like an investment professional to make smarter portfolio…

Nov 20, 2025 • Ricardo Vargas

📘 Rollover Equity in LBOs: Why Founders Stay in the Game After Selling

Understanding the “second bite” through a real-world leveraged buyout capital structure

Nov 19, 2025 • Ricardo Vargas

1

From Noise to Conviction: A Quantitative Anatomy of Equity Risk and Return

A disciplined framework to evaluate risk efficiency, convexity, and downside fragility in a narrative-driven market.

Nov 17, 2025 • Ricardo Vargas

1